The following is a demonstration blog created for my BCM325 Future Cultures subject.
Sea levels rise as accelerated warming caused by climate change increases the melting of glaciers and polar ice. Even as close as 2030, this will dramatically impact coastal Australian communities due to erosion and increased salination. The simple presence of more water in the system will mean heightened and more intense weather activity and greater flooding across Australia and the world. In this blog post, I will explore the Possible, Probable and Preferable futures of sea level increase by the end of the decade.
Image 1: A possible vision of the future created using MidJourney V6 and the prompt: a photograph of an Australian coastal beach streetscape footpath underwater with a child standing next to a pet dog.
In Bell’s (1998, p.332) article in American Behaviour Scientist, Possible Futures, Bell argues that what makes social life possible contributes to the well-being of all human societies. So, when considering the possible, we must consider the moral implications of those predictions. It is not enough simply to imagine the worst outcomes possible but also consider the values and attitudes that make that future fit within the realm of possibility. No one wants the ocean levels to rise, but at the same time, people are not racing to replace fossil fuel machines with electric ones. The Australian government (and both sides of politics) have long, historically financially motivated ties to fossil fuel companies, including coal, gas and oil. They are committed to ensuring those industries are part of our future. Those values are at odds with the property values of homeowners, businesses, institutions and facilities based on current sea levels.
The people protesting that their beach views will be less ‘aesthetic’ due to offshore wind farms are the same people whose lives and livelihoods will start to change by 2030 due to the conditions caused by increased sea levels. I asked the new ClaudeAI model from Anthropic about the likely impacts of ocean level rises and received a few predictions that surprised me. Alongside increased coastal erosion and loss of beaches, more coastal flooding and disruption to low-lying infrastructure, was the mention of increased salinity in the water table. The intrusion of saltwater into coastal aquifers and groundwater systems will significantly impact freshwater resources and agriculture in coastal regions.
Image 2. Created with DallE, which describes this image as: An Australian coastal beach streetscape with a footpath submerged under water. A child stands next to a pet dog, both looking at the flooded street. The scene captures a sunny day with clear blue skies, and the water reflects the surrounding palm trees and beach houses. The child wears casual beach attire, and the dog is a medium-sized, friendly-looking breed. The image conveys a sense of unexpected adventure in a typically serene beach setting.
Probable Futures
Both ClaudeAI and the Gemini AI chatbot were useful in locating reliable sources of information, including the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology’s State of the Climate Reports. However, a traditional Google Scholar Search helped me access the most useful data and analysis. In the study by Hague et al (2020) the global data shows the frequencies of minor coastal inundation, which means low-level and localised flooding of coastal areas, has increased from 1.6 to 7.8 days per year from when observations were first recorded in 1914.: “ We attribute over 80% of the observed coastal inundation events between 1970 and 2015 to the predominantly anthropogenic increases in global mean sea level.”
Figure from Hague et al (2020): “Observational data sources and examples. (a) Locations where coastal inundation impacts have been observed and been used for determination of impact-based thresholds (green markers) and position and name of tide gauges (red and black markers). Images of impacts associated with minor inundation on 3 February 2014 at Hawkesbury River Train Station carpark (b) and Mona Vale (c) and at Botany on 15 December 2008 (d). Arrows mark these locations on the map.”
The website, AdaptNSW, draws on data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report, which predicts the NSW coast to experience a sea level increase by 0.21m by 2100. If this proceeds at a predictable and steady rate, then by 2030 the sea level increase would only be 2cm. However, that represents an incredible increase in total water in the system. AdaptNSW recommends expanding coast buffer zones, replanting coastal dunes, fencing creeks and rivers, controlling invasive species and restoring mangroves and salt marsh areas to reduce the sea level’s impact on surrounding areas.
Preferable Futures
The ocean level is a complex cybernetic system. It rises according to the amount of available water in the system. An increase should activate us to cut fossil fuels and the contribution of carbon dioxide to the biosphere. But as a second-order cybernetic system, we humans are the breakdown in the system. For some reason, we are not active enough in effecting change and steering the system into better alignment.
As a novum, ocean level rising was explored by Australian science fiction author, George Turner in the book The Sea and Summer back in 1987. Here is Gemini’s summary of this SF classic: George Turner’s science fiction novel, The Sea and Summer (also published as The Drowning Towers in the US), depicts a future ravaged by climate change in 2041. Society struggles with rising sea levels that engulf cities, leaving behind a desperate population reliant on government handouts. The book’s bleak portrayal of the greenhouse effect’s consequences resonated with critics, earning an Arthur C. Clarke Award and sparking discussions about humanity’s environmental impact.
I find it difficult to be optimistic about the future of climate change, as humans and their governments are proving to be too so at forcing fossil fuels to relinquish their grasp. The planet is incredibly power hungry, and although renewable energy sources are increasingly available and sought-after options, we cannot replace fossil fuel sources fast enough to combat the climate change that will slow down or even reverse glaciers and polar ice melting. The most probable future is more coastal inundation and even permanent flooding of low-lying areas. Sea level rise will cause most sand beaches to erode – can you imagine Wollongong without its beaches? According to AdaptNWS, more than 80% of NSW’s population lives within 50km of the coast, and I would prefer that these people and their families have beaches available to them in the future. That their homes and businesses not be underwater and that collectively we can shift to renewable energy fast enough to slow down the rise of ocean levels worldwide.
References
Bell, W., 1998. Making people responsible: The possible, the probable, and the preferable. American Behavioral Scientist, 42(3), pp.323-339.
Hague, B.S., McGregor, S., Murphy, B.F., Reef, R. and Jones, D.A., 2020. Sea level rise driving increasingly predictable coastal inundation in Sydney, Australia. Earth’s Future, 8(9), p.e2020EF001607. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020EF001607
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